According to VOX 9/12/21 Please see scenario article by pressing above button The planet is undergoing a massive, uncontrolled experiment, rapidly revealing what happens when 2.6 million pounds of carbon dioxide per second (and still rising) are added to the atmosphere.
IPCC report: August 2021: CLIMATE CRISIS MANIFESTATIONS AS OF THE SUMMER 2021 IPCC REPORT: Ocean acidification at the highest level in the past 26,000 years Oceans at the highest level of warming since the last ice age Summer 2021 arctic ice coverage at the smallest than anytime in the past 1000 years Sea level rise faster and higher than any century in the past 3000 years Last decade (2010-2020) warmer than any decade in last 125,000 years Glacial retreat unmatched in the past 2000 years Concentrations of C02 unmatched for the last 2 million years
With low emission impacts by 2100 https://www.wri.org/insights/ipcc-climate-report air temp will rise by 1.4 degree celsius annual precipitation will rise by 2/4% sea level rise will be .38M arctic sea ice loss will be 2.4 10to the 6th km to the 2nd
with High emission impacts: air temp will be 3.1 x worse annual precipitation 3.5x worse sea level rise 2x worse arctic sea ice loss will be 8x worse
METRICS and TRENDS: summing up 2021: https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/587769-six-climate-trends-may-shape-2022-across-the-us IN this year post cover:
Humans likely added 36.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 reaches its annual peak in May with an all-time weekly high of 418 parts per million (ppm). In 2021, the question is not whether we will beat 418 — we definitely will — but whether we see signs that emissions are slowing. That would mean growing less than 2.4 ppm, so staying below 421 ppm.
2021 will likely be the sixth warmest on record. We are currently in a La Nina — a weather pattern triggered by unusually cool water in the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is like having the global air conditioner set on max — it tends to depress global temperatures. But it’s expected to fade in the coming months, so 2022 has a good shot at being warmer than 2021. With or without La Nina, we can expect to see parts of the country struggle with deadly heat this summer.
The biggest trend, though, is the chance of storms rapidly intensifying into major hurricanes.
More extremes in precipitation. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor.
the drought in the Southwest, which contributes to higher wildfire risk and threatens water supplies.
total cost of all of these climate-influenced events. The human costs of extreme heat, fires, floods and high winds are brutal. But there are also direct economic costs — money that we have to pay to rebuild communities and money that we lose due to droughts and disruption. In dollars, final tallies from these events often reach the billions. And their frequency — and costs — are growing every year: the U. S. now experiences a billion-dollar disaster every 22 days.
ARCTIC SEA ICE REPORT 2021: The Arctic sea ice extent actually grew faster than in the latest years. By the end of December, its extent is 12.95 million square kilometers (5.00 million square miles) which is just within the interdecile range according to the National Snow & Ice Data Center of Boulder, Colorado (US).
Climate Metrics on local air quality and impacts from climate change: The Champlain Basin Watershed includes the Lake George Watershed and surrounding areas: here are some important climate metrics from the Nature Conservancy publication "Climate Change in the Champlain Basin" July 2010
The mean annual temperature during summer/fall in the Basin has warmed by 2.1 degrees F between 1976 and 2005 Annual precipitation increased by approximately 3 inches greater than it was in the preceding 8 decades Lake Champlian if it freezes at all is freezing 2 weeks later than it did in the 19th e The number of days of ice has decreased significantly (Lake Champlain) Air temp will rise by 6-11 degrees F in the next 90 years, so less snowpack, river and lake ice creating a 10-15% increase in precipitation This also means increase in nonpoint source runoff, carring more nutrients, toxins and sediment from the landscape into the interonncected waterbodies of the watershed (Lake George) 72 dangerous cyanobacterial (blue green algae) blooms occur and deep water hypoxia may occur in the lakes (2011) Biodiversity from climate change changes habitats for plants and animals Thermal stress increases vulnerability topests and disease Some invasive species can survive in places formerly impossible. Air quality in the region in general is very good, but the counties of Warren, Washington and Saratoga do not meeting the NAAQ's ( National Ambient Air Quality)standards of .075 parts per million for ground level ozone. The Summit of Whiteface Mourntian in Essex county has ozone above the NAAQS levels, while the monitoring station at the base of the mountain has below. Conclusion -- that industrial sources in Canada, The American Midwest and western NY are the cause. (CVHP management plan webpage)
Some local metrics from the Town of Lake George Climate Action Plan: Common Sources of GHG Emissions from Lake George Government Operations There are six recognized GHGs from human activities: carbon dioxide (CO2) methane(CH4), nitrous oxide (N20) hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) perfluorocarbons (PFC's) hexafluoride (SF6). In Lake George, Town and Village municipal operations create emissions from:
Burning fossil fuels or using electricity generated from fossil fuels in buildings and vehicles which creates CO2 and a small amount of CH4 and N2O. This creates most emissions.
Solid and sewage waste management practices that release CH4 and N2O.
Common refrigerants (HFCs) used in building and vehicle air conditioning which are powerful GHGs and create a net footprint when they leak to the air.
Here are a few of the fossil fuel tax breaks New York taxpayers are paying for: · $182 million for research and development. Current policy allows tax exemptions for the costs of fuel, gas, electricity, refrigeration, and steam used for research and development within the fossil fuel industry · $120 million for electric and gas delivery. Right now, the sales and use tax rate on transportation, transmission, and distribution of gas or electricity is zero percent when it is sold by someone other than the vendor of gas or electricity · $118 million in tax breaks for airline fuel
Climate Action Myths (Dunlea 12/14/20)
1.Net zero by 2050 is sufficient to solve the climate crisis.Misleading. We need the reductions now or our carbon budget will be used up by date deadlines in future. 2.We can compensate for fossil fuel emissions using so-called “nature-based solutions” (such as carbon sequestration in vegetation and soils). Misleading. Nature based will help, but is slower and FF is happening today! Return of carbon to the earth interior takes billions of years. Soil sequestration is a fast and short term solution, ie if there are forest fires. 3. Net zero targets as well as carbon offsetting increase the incentives to reduce emissions because emissions are allocated a cost. Misleading. Incentives decrease when it is easier to offset than eliminate 4. Carbon offsetting in low-income countries must increase to meet the Paris agreement. Misleading. No carbon budget left for developed countries 5. Funding renewable energy projects is a good way to compensate for fossil fuel emissions. Problematic. It is happening anyway and has its own emissions so cant count as offset 6. Technological solutions for carbon dioxide removal will solve the problem. Overly optimistic. 7. Tree plantations capture more carbon than leaving old forests undisturbed. Misleading. It is better to cut fewer trees, so that the carbon already stored is not released. The carbon released by felled trees can take a hundred years or more to be recaptured by new trees. We do not have that time. 8. Planting trees in the tropics is a cost-effective win-win solution for both nature and local communities. Oversimplified. 9. Each ton of carbon dioxide is the same and can be treated interchangeably. False. Storage of carbon in plants and soils cannot compensate for emissions of fossil carbon
Buffalo is the least harmed by climate crisis in the state.
Western Mass. has the fastest rate of climate change in the country (?) . the move away from 1.5 Centrigrade is at 1.53%
Upstate NY is on track for a 10-14 degree F increase by the end of the century which is total climate collapse.
“We’re at 1 degree of warming now, and we’re already seeing the impacts of climate change very clearly with wildfires, flooding, and other extreme weather events. Jeff Goodell rolling Stone spring 2020
the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which could raise global sea levels by 10 feet.
In March 1958, when scientist Charles Keeling first started measuring it from the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, the CO2 level in the atmosphere was 315.71 parts per million. A year later, it was 316.71 parts per million. Why would anyone be alarmed by an increase of one part per million of CO2?
“The climatic impacts of releasing CO2 will last longer than Stonehenge,” wrote climate scientist David Archer. “Longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than the age of human civilization so far.”
NASA:2016 and 2019 were the hottest on record.
The Jakobshavn glacier, on the west coast of Greenland, is the fastest-moving glacier in the world. It is flowing into the sea at a rate of about 150 feet per day. If you fly along the face of it in a helicopter, as I did a few years ago, you can watch slabs of blue ice fall into the sea every few minutes.
limiting warming to 1.5 C is NOT doable.. Net emissions would need to fall by half by 2030, and to zero by 2050.
2018 report showed that, at 2 C, severe heat events would become 2.6 times worse, plant- and vertebrate-species loss two times worse, insect-species loss three times worse, and decline in marine fisheries two times worse. Instead of 70 percent of coral reefs dying, 99 percent will die. Many vulnerable and low-lying regions would become uninhabitable and the flow of refugees would rise
Germany, the industrial powerhouse of Europe, plans to shut down all coal plants by 2038
Local manifestations of climate crisis:
From talking to area climate people (Mark Dunlea, John Sheehan 518 441 1340 (Adirondack Council, clean air advocate ) and research the most visible signs of local climate change in upstate NY:
HAB situation on LG and other lake water quality issues, warming waters, fish die off, Lake G freezing patterns
Maple syrup season is off
The Boreal forest habitat is shrinking (Tongue Mtn. Range) so bird population and notably a kind of thrush are being impacted. The hardwoods will climb the mountains and replace the boreal forest..the maples and birch. When they wanted to do wind turbines on Gore these birds could have been affected.
Possibly the bat disease (white nose?) had to do with earlier warmer season so bats waking up sooner but without the insects they need to feed on
Wooly aldegid has long been thought climate dependent, though the disease is coming up from the south; cold weather thought to keep it at bay. If Hemlocks go especially around Lake George watershed property owners will be very impacted financially because they will suffer damage.
People have been posting photos of the ermines turning white but there is no snow and it endangers them to their prey and makes it harder for them to be camouflage when they hunt
Winter sports season; also events like LG winter carnival, ice bars, ice sculptures in LG
The tornado that came through last late summer; storm frequency/ trees down/flooding
invasives/deer tic, wooly adelgid (?)
Trees change color earlier; is our growing season lengthening?
Demography (also Covid intersection and political reasons); many moving north, real estate booming here and in Vt. Development causing more land disruption and aesthetic shifts toward larger homes in elite areas.